Drought Diagnosis in the Municipality of Itaberaba-Ba and the Potential Impacts for Pineapple Growing

Abstract

This work presents a diagnosis of the incidence of drought in the municipality of Itaberaba-BA, with a view to evaluating the behavior of rainfall for the last 40 years (analyzing the possible consequences for the cultivation of pineapple in the region), and for the changes that the projections future climate points. Daily historical data of precipitation (mm), maximum and minimum temperatures (ºC) were used. To characterize drought situations, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used, which quantifies the deficiency of precipitation in different time scales, and future data came from the PROJETA Platform using the climate scenario: RCP 8.5, continental, HADGEM2-ES. The treatment of rainfall data showed that the wettest period lasted from November to March, which is the best period to plan pineapple planting. As inferences: a) There is an increase of approximately 530 ha of harvested area, when the SPI18_May transcends its classification of incipient humidity to moderately humid, in more than 95% of the years; b) At each unit increment of SPI18_May, pineapple yield tends to increase quantitatively by 6,952 kg/ha, in the rainfed system for the municipality of Itaberaba; and c) For future projections, from 2020 to 2060, it is believed that there will be no expressive change in the responses of harvested area and yield, as the climatic behaviors of drought for the present climate and future climate, when confronted, do not undergo substantial variations.