Analysis of the Agroecological Zone Method in Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

Abstract

Agriculture is an activity dependent on environmental conditions and with the predicted climate changes, serious influences on crops are likely to occur, and prediction studies are important in order to minimize the impacts on agricultural production. The present work is the result of consultations to scientific works published on the proposed topic. It was found that extreme heat increases and greater risks of drought are expected in Brazil and that the Agroecological Zone Method is one of the most used for modeling in which it is desired to verify the impact of the water deficit on plant production,being of easy application, understanding and your results are close to reality. In this situation, depletion in plant production is considered only as a function of the reduction of water available to the plant, which is interesting for verifying the influence of future climate change scenarios on plant production. However, it has the disadvantage of not considering the attack of pests and diseases, which are influenced by climate changes. The importance of reinforcing resilience in agroecosystems is also highlighted, not only with plant improvement through the development of cultivars adapted to future climate scenarios, but also with management alternatives. It is concluded that the Agroecological Zone Method is a reliable alternative to verify the effect of future droughts on agricultural production, despite its limitations and that it is essential to plan and combine strategies for adapting to climate change.