Evaluation of the Mark-HadGEM2-ES and Mark-MIROC5 models to Simulate mean Temperatures in the last Agricultural Frontier of the Brazilian Savanna

Abstract

Climate models adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are able to replicate the current climate on a continental scale, but need to be validated on smaller scales. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Mark-HadGEM2-ES and Mark-MIROC5 regional models to estimate mean temperatures in the last frontier of agricultural expansion of the Brazilian savannah. For this, the data generated by the models were compared with those registered by the National Institute of Meteorology and evaluated by statistical measures of correlation, bias and performance. The results revealed low bias and very good agreement, but high relative error and unsatisfactory performance in the microregional and regional scales. Thus, the data generated by these models need correction to reproduce the current climate and to allow reliable projections on these spatial scales.